Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
D.J. MooreReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Bears vs. Vikings
Right now, D.J. Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-145/+105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 60.5 (-145) after it opened @ 54.5 (-115).
Pros
- This week’s spread implies a throwing game script for the Bears, who are -3-point underdogs.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
- D.J. Moore has run a route on 95.3% of his offense’s passing plays this year, placing him in the 94th percentile among wide receivers.
- The leading projections forecast D.J. Moore to accumulate 7.8 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among wide receivers.
- D.J. Moore’s 99.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year reflects a a meaningful growth in his receiving talent over last year’s 49.0 rate.
Cons
- Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chicago Bears to pass on 49.6% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
- At the present time, the 8th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Chicago Bears.
- Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being forecasted in this game) usually prompt lessened passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher run volume.
- When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Bears grades out as the 6th-worst in the league this year.
- The Vikings safeties grade out as the 3rd-best unit in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards
67
Receiving Yards
