Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Cole KmetReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Bears vs. Vikings
Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 34.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 34.5 (-110) after it opened @ 31.5 (-110).
Pros
- This week’s spread implies a throwing game script for the Bears, who are -3-point underdogs.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
- The predictive model expects Cole Kmet to accumulate 5.8 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 89th percentile when it comes to TEs.
- After accumulating 32.0 air yards per game last year, Cole Kmet has produced significantly more this year, currently pacing 40.0 per game.
- Cole Kmet’s 52.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year signifies a a noteworthy improvement in his receiving talent over last year’s 32.0 figure.
Cons
- Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chicago Bears to pass on 49.6% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
- At the present time, the 8th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Chicago Bears.
- Windy weather conditions (like the 17-mph being forecasted in this game) usually prompt lessened passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and higher run volume.
- Cole Kmet’s 71.5% Route Participation% this year signifies a a significant diminishment in his passing attack workload over last year’s 84.0% mark.
- When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Bears grades out as the 6th-worst in the league this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
40
Receiving Yards
40
Receiving Yards
