Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Christian KirkReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Colts vs. Jaguars
Right now, Christian Kirk’s receiving yards prop is set at 62.5 yards (-131/-104).
The public has bet the OVER up to 62.5 (-131) after it opened @ 54.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Christian Kirk has been used less as a potential target this year (94.6% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (81.8%).
- THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to accumulate 8.4 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 88th percentile among wideouts.
- Christian Kirk has totaled a whopping 75.0 air yards per game this year: 80th percentile among wideouts.
Cons
- Christian Kirk’s ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 74.9% to 58.7%.
- The Indianapolis Colts defense has given up the 4th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 133.0) to wideouts this year.
- The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has conceded the 7th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.9%) versus wideouts this year (62.9%).
- The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has displayed strong efficiency against wideouts this year, conceding 7.76 yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-least in football.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
64
Receiving Yards
64
Receiving Yards
