WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Chris OlaveReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Texans vs. Saints
Right now, Chris Olave’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-110) after it opened @ 56.5 (-110).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the New Orleans Saints as the 4th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Saints are expected by the model to run 68.6 total plays in this contest: the highest number among all teams this week.
- The 8th-most plays in the league have been called by the Saints this year (a whopping 61.2 per game on average).
- The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.
- In this week’s contest, Chris Olave is expected by the predictive model to finish in the 95th percentile when it comes to WRs with 9.5 targets.
Cons
- Opposing QBs have averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Texans defense this year: 10th-fewest in the league.
- Chris Olave’s 55.8% Adjusted Completion Rate this season conveys a a noteworthy drop-off in his receiving skills over last season’s 60.1% mark.
- Chris Olave’s 7.3 adjusted yards per target this year indicates a a substantial decline in his receiving prowess over last year’s 8.4 rate.
- Chris Olave has been among the worst WRs in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 1st percentile.
- The Texans pass defense has displayed good efficiency versus WRs this year, yielding 7.48 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-fewest in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
74
Receiving Yards
74
Receiving Yards
