Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Chris Olave from EV Insight

Chris OlaveReceiving Yards

Right now, Chris Olave’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-110) after it opened @ 56.5 (-110).

Pros

Our trusted projections expect the New Orleans Saints as the 4th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Saints are expected by the model to run 68.6 total plays in this contest: the highest number among all teams this week.
The 8th-most plays in the league have been called by the Saints this year (a whopping 61.2 per game on average).
The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.
In this week’s contest, Chris Olave is expected by the predictive model to finish in the 95th percentile when it comes to WRs with 9.5 targets.

Cons

Opposing QBs have averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Texans defense this year: 10th-fewest in the league.
Chris Olave’s 55.8% Adjusted Completion Rate this season conveys a a noteworthy drop-off in his receiving skills over last season’s 60.1% mark.
Chris Olave’s 7.3 adjusted yards per target this year indicates a a substantial decline in his receiving prowess over last year’s 8.4 rate.
Chris Olave has been among the worst WRs in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 1st percentile.
The Texans pass defense has displayed good efficiency versus WRs this year, yielding 7.48 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-fewest in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
74
Receiving Yards