Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Chris OlaveReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Saints vs. Bengals
Right now, Chris Olave’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-115/-119).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 60.5 (-119) after it opened @ 61.5 (-115).
Pros
- The New Orleans Saints will be forced to start backup QB Andy Dalton this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Saints are a 3-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game versus the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 7th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 57.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Chris Olave has been among the least sure-handed receivers in football, catching a mere 58.7% of balls thrown his way this year, ranking in the 22nd percentile among wideouts
- Chris Olave has been among the weakest wideouts in the league at picking up extra yardage, averaging just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 1st percentile.
- The Cincinnati Bengals defense has allowed the 6th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 140.0) vs. WRs this year.
- The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has shown good efficiency versus WRs this year, allowing 7.53 yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
81
Receiving Yards
81
Receiving Yards
