Week 6 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Amari Cooper from EV Insight

Amari CooperReceiving Yards

Right now, Amari Cooper’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 39.5 (-110) after it opened @ 40.5 (-114).

Pros

The Cleveland Browns will be rolling out backup QB PJ Walker this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
This week’s line indicates a throwing game script for the Browns, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
The 2nd-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Browns this year (a massive 66.2 per game on average).
The 49ers defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 4th-most passes in the NFL (40.8 per game) this year.
Amari Cooper has been among the top WRs in the league this year, averaging an exceptional 61.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 80th percentile.

Cons

At the present time, the 9th-least pass-focused team in football (58.2% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Browns.
The predictive model expects the Browns to call the fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.6 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has shown good efficiency vs. WRs this year, allowing 7.10 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-fewest in the NFL.
The 49ers pass defense has performed very well when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.98 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-fewest in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
52
Receiving Yards