Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Allen LazardReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Packers vs. Jets
Right now, Allen Lazard’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 45.5 (-125) after it opened @ 47.5 (-115).
Pros
- Allen Lazard has gone out for fewer passes this season (93.2% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (77.3%).
- THE BLITZ projects Allen Lazard to notch 6.7 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 75th percentile among wide receivers.
- Allen Lazard has accrued many more air yards this season (82.0 per game) than he did last season (44.0 per game).
- Allen Lazard has totaled substantially more receiving yards per game (61.0) this year than he did last year (38.0).
- Allen Lazard has been among the most efficient pass-catchers in the league, averaging a terrific 10.20 yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 82nd percentile among wideouts.
Cons
- The Packers are a heavy 7.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 7th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 57.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-least plays run on the slate this week at 126.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Jets defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
- The New York Jets cornerbacks grade out as the 5th-best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
61
Receiving Yards
61
Receiving Yards
