Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Adam TrautmanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Chiefs vs. Broncos
Right now, Adam Trautman’s receiving yards prop is set at 19.5 yards (+105/-136).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 19.5 (-136) after it opened @ 21.5 (-112).
Pros
- The Broncos are a massive 10.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- Adam Trautman has gone out for fewer passes this season (76.0% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (28.5%).
- Adam Trautman has totaled far more air yards this season (15.0 per game) than he did last season (8.0 per game).
- This year, the porous Kansas City Chiefs defense has been gouged for a staggering 56.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing TEs: the 6th-most in the NFL.
- This year, the anemic Chiefs defense has been torched for the 10th-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing tight ends: a staggering 7.95 yards.
Cons
- Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Broncos are anticipated by the projections to call just 62.0 offensive plays in this game: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.
- The Broncos have called the 4th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 51.8 plays per game.
- Adam Trautman’s 66.2% Adjusted Completion Rate this season reflects a a noteable decrease in his pass-catching prowess over last season’s 80.6% mark.
- Adam Trautman’s pass-game efficiency has declined this season, averaging just 5.78 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 9.19 mark last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
20
Receiving Yards
20
Receiving Yards
