Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
A.J. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Eagles vs. Cowboys
Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 65.5 (-110) after it opened @ 67.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run on the slate this week at 138.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 66.0 plays per game.
- The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 42.2 pass attempts per game versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
- A.J. Brown has been used less as a potential target this season (91.2% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (77.9%).
Cons
- The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 49.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-lowest Completion% in football (57.6%) vs. wide receivers this year (57.6%).
- The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has displayed good efficiency against wideouts this year, giving up 6.88 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-least in football.
- The Dallas Cowboys safeties rank as the 3rd-best group of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
64
Receiving Yards
64
Receiving Yards
