College Football Props of the Week: Week 4
Walter Waddell
Zach WilsonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Jets vs. Eagles
Right now, Zach Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 200.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 200.5 (-110) after it opened @ 196.5 (-110).
Pros
- The New York Jets will be rolling out backup QB Zach Wilson in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this game, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.
- The Eagles defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (41.0 per game) this year.
- Zach Wilson’s throwing precision has improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 55.9% to 62.9%.
- This year, the porous Eagles defense has allowed a staggering 274.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing teams: the 6th-worst in the NFL.
Cons
- The Jets have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- At the present time, the 5th-slowest paced offense in the league (adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Jets.
- Zach Wilson has been among the bottom QBs in the league this year, averaging 184.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 24th percentile.
- With a weak 6.19 adjusted yards-per-target (15th percentile) this year, Zach Wilson rates as one of the least efficient QBs in the league.
- The Philadelphia Eagles defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.82 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-fewest in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
197
Passing Yards
197
Passing Yards
