Week 6 Player Props: Passing Yards for Zach Wilson from EV Insight

Zach WilsonPassing Yards

Right now, Zach Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 200.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 200.5 (-110) after it opened @ 196.5 (-110).

Pros

The New York Jets will be rolling out backup QB Zach Wilson in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this game, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.
The Eagles defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (41.0 per game) this year.
Zach Wilson’s throwing precision has improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 55.9% to 62.9%.
This year, the porous Eagles defense has allowed a staggering 274.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing teams: the 6th-worst in the NFL.

Cons

The Jets have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
At the present time, the 5th-slowest paced offense in the league (adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Jets.
Zach Wilson has been among the bottom QBs in the league this year, averaging 184.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 24th percentile.
With a weak 6.19 adjusted yards-per-target (15th percentile) this year, Zach Wilson rates as one of the least efficient QBs in the league.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.82 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-fewest in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
197
Passing Yards