Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Sam HowellPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Falcons vs. Commanders
Right now, Sam Howell’s passing yards prop is set at 233.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 233.5 (-110) after it opened @ 240.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Washington Commanders boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 12.7% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Washington Commanders to pass on 64.6% of their chances: the greatest frequency on the slate this week.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The projections expect Sam Howell to throw 36.6 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 5th-most out of all quarterbacks.
- Sam Howell has been among the best passers in football this year, averaging an outstanding 270.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 84th percentile.
Cons
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Commanders are anticipated by the predictive model to run just 62.6 plays on offense in this contest: the 4th-fewest among all teams this week.
- This year, the fierce Falcons defense has allowed a mere 204.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing quarterbacks: the 5th-best in the NFL.
- This year, the formidable Atlanta Falcons defense has allowed the 10th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing offenses: a measly 7.1 yards.
- The Falcons safeties profile as the 4th-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
259
Passing Yards
259
Passing Yards
