Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Matt RyanPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Colts vs. Jaguars
Right now, Matt Ryan’s passing yards prop is set at 242.5 yards (+102/-139).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 242.5 (-139) after it opened @ 249.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Colts to run the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Indianapolis Colts have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 64.8 plays per game.
- Matt Ryan has attempted 41.2 passes per game this year, grading out in the 79th percentile among QBs.
- Matt Ryan has passed for a lot more yards per game (282.0) this year than he did last year (235.0).
- The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 7.92 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 9th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 58.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 8th-least in the NFL.
- The Indianapolis Colts O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
- Opposing teams have completed passes at the 8th-lowest clip in the NFL vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year (66.4%).
- The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers rank as the 7th-best group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
258
Passing Yards
258
Passing Yards
