NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Kirk CousinsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Dolphins vs. Vikings
Right now, Kirk Cousins’s passing yards prop is set at 260.5 yards (-106/-129).
The public has bet the OVER up to 260.5 (-106) after it opened @ 258.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 64.5% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 27.62 seconds per play.
- Kirk Cousins has attempted 42.1 throws per game this year, ranking in the 88th percentile among quarterbacks.
- Kirk Cousins has been among the best passers in football this year, averaging a stellar 273.0 yards per game while checking in at the 79th percentile.
Cons
- The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- The Miami Dolphins defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 5.87 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-least in football.
- The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-quickest in football since the start of last season.
- The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on just 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
Projection
THE BLITZ
265
Passing Yards
265
Passing Yards
