Week 6 Player Props: Passing Yards for Kirk Cousins from EV Insight

Kirk CousinsPassing Yards

Right now, Kirk Cousins’s passing yards prop is set at 260.5 yards (-106/-129).

The public has bet the OVER up to 260.5 (-106) after it opened @ 258.5 (-115).

Pros

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 64.5% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 27.62 seconds per play.
Kirk Cousins has attempted 42.1 throws per game this year, ranking in the 88th percentile among quarterbacks.
Kirk Cousins has been among the best passers in football this year, averaging a stellar 273.0 yards per game while checking in at the 79th percentile.

Cons

The Vikings are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Miami Dolphins defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 5.87 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-least in football.
The Miami Dolphins defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-quickest in football since the start of last season.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on just 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

Projection

THE BLITZ
265
Passing Yards