Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Justin HerbertPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Chargers vs. Cowboys
Right now, Justin Herbert’s passing yards prop is set at 277.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 277.5 (-110) after it opened @ 282.5 (-110).
Pros
- Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 63.4% of their opportunities: the 3rd-greatest clip on the slate this week.
- The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.4 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a massive 61.2 plays per game.
- The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- With an exceptional total of 278.0 adjusted passing yards per game (89th percentile), Justin Herbert has been as one of the top quarterbacks in football this year.
Cons
- The model projects the Chargers offensive gameplan to skew 2.2% more towards the rushing attack than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game against the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: fewest in the league.
- Opposing offenses have thrown for the 2nd-fewest yards in the NFL (just 186.0 adjusted yards per game) vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year.
- This year, the daunting Cowboys defense has conceded a mere 62.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 3rd-lowest rate in football.
- As it relates to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Dallas’s unit has been terrific this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
277
Passing Yards
277
Passing Yards
