Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Justin HerbertPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Chargers vs. Broncos
Right now, Justin Herbert’s passing yards prop is set at 270.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 270.5 (-115) after it opened @ 262.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 61.2 plays per game.
- Justin Herbert has attempted 41.8 throws per game this year, grading out in the 85th percentile among quarterbacks.
- Justin Herbert has been among the top quarterbacks in football this year, averaging a terrific 295.0 yards per game while checking in at the 91st percentile.
- The Denver Broncos defense has been vulnerable when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 6.95 yards-after-the-catch this year: the most in the league.
Cons
- The Chargers are a 4-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 61.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have passed for the 3rd-least yards in the NFL (just 199.0 per game) vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year.
- The Denver Broncos pass defense has shown good efficiency this year, conceding 6.47 yards-per-target: the 6th-least in football.
- The Denver Broncos safeties profile as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
281
Passing Yards
281
Passing Yards
