Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Justin FieldsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Bears vs. Commanders
Right now, Justin Fields’s passing yards prop is set at 170.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the OVER up to 170.5 (-105) after it opened @ 169.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Washington Commanders pass defense has shown weak efficiency this year, yielding 8.86 yards-per-target: the 4th-most in the NFL.
- The Washington Commanders cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-worst group of CBs in the league this year in pass coverage.
- The Chicago Bears offensive line has given their quarterback 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
- The Chicago Bears have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.3% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.
Cons
- The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 45.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-least plays run on the slate this week at 127.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Chicago Bears have called the least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 49.2 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to attempt 26.2 passes in this week’s game, on average: the least of all QBs.
Projection
THE BLITZ
176
Passing Yards
176
Passing Yards
