Week 6 Player Props: Passing Yards for Josh Allen from EV Insight

Josh AllenPassing Yards

Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 301.5 yards (-135/-101).

The public has bet the OVER up to 301.5 (-135) after it opened @ 293.5 (-115).

Pros

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.5% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 65.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 136.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to attempt 42.5 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the most of all QBs.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.8 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: most in the league.

Cons

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has shown strong efficiency this year, allowing 7.21 yards-per-target: the 9th-least in the NFL.
The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers rank as the 9th-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Buffalo Bills have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
310
Passing Yards