Week 6 Player Props: Passing Yards for Joe Burrow from EV Insight

Joe BurrowPassing Yards

Right now, Joe Burrow’s passing yards prop is set at 280.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 280.5 (-110) after it opened @ 272.5 (-110).

Pros

The projections expect the Bengals as the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 62.8% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the projections to see 128.8 total plays called: the 4th-most among all games this week.
This week, Joe Burrow is expected by the model to wind up with the 2nd-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 38.3.
Opposing offenses have averaged 42.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Seahawks defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
Opposing teams have thrown for the 2nd-most adjusted yards in football (315.0 per game) against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year.

Cons

This week’s spread indicates a rushing game script for the Bengals, who are favored by 3 points.
Joe Burrow has passed for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (214.0) this season than he did last season (289.0).
Joe Burrow’s passing precision has declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 69.4% to 60.6%.
Joe Burrow’s 5.42 adjusted yards-per-target this year illustrates a a meaningful decrease in his throwing efficiency over last year’s 7.6% mark.

Projection

THE BLITZ
272
Passing Yards