Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jimmy GaroppoloPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Falcons vs. 49ers
Right now, Jimmy Garoppolo’s passing yards prop is set at 229.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 229.5 (-115) after it opened @ 231.5 (-115).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 42.8 pass attempts per game versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
- Jimmy Garoppolo has been among the best per-play quarterbacks in football this year, averaging a stellar 8.16 yards-per-target while grading out in the 94th percentile.
- Opposing QBs have passed for the 4th-most yards in the league (285.0 per game) against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 8th-highest level in the NFL against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year (73.3%).
Cons
- The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 5th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The San Francisco 49ers have called the 9th-least plays in the league this year, averaging just 56.6 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Jimmy Garoppolo to attempt 34.5 passes in this game, on average: the 6th-least of all quarterbacks.
Projection
THE BLITZ
270
Passing Yards
270
Passing Yards
