Week 6 Player Props: Passing Yards for Geno Smith

Geno SmithPassing Yards

Right now, Geno Smith’s passing yards prop is set at 243.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 243.5 (-110) after it opened @ 239.5 (-110).

Pros

The Seahawks are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Seahawks to pass on 60.1% of their plays: the 8th-highest rate on the slate this week.
The projections expect the Seahawks offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.18 seconds per play.
As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Cincinnati’s safety corps has been lousy this year, projecting as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

Cons

Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Bengals, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 30.8 per game) this year.
Geno Smith has thrown for significantly fewer adjusted yards per game (218.0) this year than he did last year (255.0).
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 6th-lowest rate in the NFL versus the Bengals defense this year (63.7% Adjusted Completion%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
252
Passing Yards