Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Gardner MinshewPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Jaguars vs. Colts
Right now, Gardner Minshew’s passing yards prop is set at 224.5 yards (-143/+110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 224.5 (-143) after it opened @ 222.5 (-113).
Pros
- The Colts are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
- The leading projections forecast the Colts to call the 3rd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.4 plays, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- The Indianapolis Colts have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a massive 61.0 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Jaguars defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
- The Colts O-line grades out as the 10th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the Colts offensive gameplan to skew 1.7% more towards the run game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with head coach Shane Steichen now calling the plays.
- The predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 8th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 56.1% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- In tallying a paltry 21.6 pass attempts per game this year, Gardner Minshew ranks among the bottom QBs in the league (16th percentile) in this statistic.
- With a terrible rate of 150.0 adjusted passing yards per game (18th percentile), Gardner Minshew stands among the bottom passers in the league this year.
- When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Jacksonville’s group of CBs has been phenomenal this year, grading out as the 5th-best in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
235
Passing Yards
235
Passing Yards
