Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Derek CarrPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Texans vs. Saints
Right now, Derek Carr’s passing yards prop is set at 224.5 yards (-113/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 224.5 (-113) after it opened @ 214.5 (-115).
Pros
- Our trusted projections expect the New Orleans Saints as the 4th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Saints are expected by the model to run 68.6 total plays in this contest: the highest number among all teams this week.
- The 8th-most plays in the league have been called by the Saints this year (a whopping 61.2 per game on average).
- The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.
- The model projects Derek Carr to attempt 37.5 passes this week, on average: the 4th-most out of all QBs.
Cons
- Opposing QBs have averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Texans defense this year: 10th-fewest in the league.
- Derek Carr has thrown for quite a few less adjusted yards per game (190.0) this year than he did last year (237.0).
- When it comes to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Houston’s unit has been outstanding this year, projecting as the best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
263
Passing Yards
263
Passing Yards
