Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dak PrescottPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Chargers vs. Cowboys
Right now, Dak Prescott’s passing yards prop is set at 257.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Cowboys have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- The Chargers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, enticing opposing offenses to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (40.8 per game) this year.
- Dak Prescott’s 69.8% Adjusted Completion% this season illustrates a a substantial gain in his passing precision over last season’s 65.4% figure.
- This year, the anemic Los Angeles Chargers defense has yielded a colossal 324.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing teams: the most in the NFL.
- This year, the anemic Chargers defense has allowed the most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing squads: a whopping 8.94 yards.
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the Dallas Cowboys as the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Dallas Cowboys are projected by the projection model to call 66.6 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-highest number among all teams this week.
- In this week’s game, Dak Prescott is projected by our trusted projection set to total the 8th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 35.9.
Projection
THE BLITZ
269
Passing Yards
269
Passing Yards
