College Football Props of the Week: Week 4
Walter Waddell
C.J. StroudPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Texans vs. Saints
Right now, C.J. Stroud’s passing yards prop is set at 224.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the OVER up to 224.5 (+100) after it opened @ 222.5 (-113).
Pros
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by the predictive model to have 137.2 offensive plays called: the most among all games this week.
- The Houston Texans have called the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 62.8 plays per game.
- The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.
- The model projects C.J. Stroud to throw 36.6 passes in this game, on average: the 6th-most out of all QBs.
- C.J. Stroud has been among the top QBs in the NFL this year, averaging a remarkable 274.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 87th percentile.
Cons
- The Houston Texans have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The model projects the Texans as the 6th-least pass-oriented offense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 57.8% pass rate.
- With a feeble 60.3% Adjusted Completion% (12th percentile) this year, C.J. Stroud ranks as one of the least on-target quarterbacks in football.
- This year, the fierce Saints defense has allowed a feeble 62.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 4th-smallest rate in the league.
- This year, the fierce Saints defense has allowed the 5th-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing teams: a feeble 6.4 yards.
Projection
THE BLITZ
265
Passing Yards
265
Passing Yards
