Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Brock PurdyPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Browns vs. 49ers
Right now, Brock Purdy’s passing yards prop is set at 205.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 205.5 (-110) after it opened @ 201.5 (-110).
Pros
- Brock Purdy’s 268.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year signifies a a material improvement in his throwing ability over last year’s 151.0 figure.
- Brock Purdy’s passing precision has been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 66.4% to 72.8%.
- Brock Purdy’s 9.78 adjusted yards-per-target this year represents a a meaningful progression in his passing efficiency over last year’s 8.0% figure.
Cons
- A rushing game script is implied by the 49ers being a 6.5-point favorite in this game.
- Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the 49ers to pass on 52.6% of their chances: the 4th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
- Right now, the most sluggish paced offense in football (in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the San Francisco 49ers.
- In this contest, Brock Purdy is forecasted by the projection model to wind up with the 3rd-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 28.6.
- Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Cleveland Browns, totaling the fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 27.0 per game) this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
190
Passing Yards
190
Passing Yards
