NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Bailey ZappePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Browns vs. Patriots
Right now, Bailey Zappe’s passing yards prop is set at 202.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 202.5 (-120) after it opened @ 205.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Patriots are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
- The New England Patriots offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
- The Cleveland Browns pass defense has displayed weak efficiency this year, conceding 8.68 yards-per-target: the 5th-most in football.
- The Cleveland Browns safeties profile as the 4th-worst safety corps in football this year in covering receivers.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 3rd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 54.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 63.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New England Patriots have run the 7th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 55.4 plays per game.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
202
Passing Yards
202
Passing Yards
