Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Andy DaltonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 6
Saints vs. Bengals
Right now, Andy Dalton’s passing yards prop is set at 202.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 202.5 (-110) after it opened @ 221.5 (-115).
Pros
- The New Orleans Saints will be forced to start backup quarterback Andy Dalton in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Saints are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 5th-fastest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.44 seconds per snap.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game versus the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 7th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 57.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Andy Dalton has been among the bottom quarterbacks in football since the start of last season, averaging 185.0 yards per game while ranking in the 20th percentile.
- Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 7th-lowest clip in the NFL versus the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year (66.2%).
- The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has shown strong efficiency this year, allowing 7.16 yards-per-target: the 7th-least in football.
- The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers profile as the 8th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
268
Passing Yards
268
Passing Yards
