Week 5 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Saquon Barkley from EV Insight

Saquon BarkleyRushing Yards

Right now, Saquon Barkley’s rushing yards prop is set at 78.5 yards (-125/-105).

The public has bet the OVER up to 78.5 (-125) after it opened @ 77.5 (-115).

Pros

The Giants rank as the 5th-most run-oriented team in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 42.5% run rate.
The New York Giants have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 63.5 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Saquon Barkley to accumulate 18.6 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking in the 97th percentile among RBs.
Saquon Barkley has been a more integral piece of his team’s running game this season (76.4% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (58.1%).

Cons

The Giants are a huge 9.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New York Giants have used motion in their offense on 26.6% of their plays since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

Projection

THE BLITZ
78
Rushing Yards