Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Saquon BarkleyRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Packers vs. Giants
Right now, Saquon Barkley’s rushing yards prop is set at 78.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 78.5 (-125) after it opened @ 77.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Giants rank as the 5th-most run-oriented team in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 42.5% run rate.
- The New York Giants have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 63.5 plays per game.
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Saquon Barkley to accumulate 18.6 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking in the 97th percentile among RBs.
- Saquon Barkley has been a more integral piece of his team’s running game this season (76.4% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (58.1%).
Cons
- The Giants are a huge 9.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The New York Giants have used motion in their offense on 26.6% of their plays since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
78
Rushing Yards
78
Rushing Yards
