Week 5 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Rhamondre Stevenson from EV Insight

Rhamondre StevensonRushing Yards

Right now, Rhamondre Stevenson’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-123/-111).

The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-123) after it opened @ 51.5 (-120).

Pros

The Patriots are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 3rd-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 47.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Rhamondre Stevenson has garnered 42.6% of his offense’s carries this year, putting him in the 75th percentile among running backs.
The New England Patriots O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year at opening holes for rushers.

Cons

The New England Patriots will be rolling with backup QB Bailey Zappe in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 5th-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 29.07 seconds per snap.
The New England Patriots have gone up against a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on just 2.6% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in the league). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

Projection

THE BLITZ
56
Rushing Yards