Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Rhamondre StevensonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Patriots vs. Lions
Right now, Rhamondre Stevenson’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-123/-111).
The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-123) after it opened @ 51.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Patriots are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 3rd-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 47.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- Rhamondre Stevenson has garnered 42.6% of his offense’s carries this year, putting him in the 75th percentile among running backs.
- The New England Patriots O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year at opening holes for rushers.
Cons
- The New England Patriots will be rolling with backup QB Bailey Zappe in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 5th-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 29.07 seconds per snap.
- The New England Patriots have gone up against a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on just 2.6% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in the league). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
Projection
THE BLITZ
56
Rushing Yards
56
Rushing Yards
