Week 5 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Rashaad Penny from EV Insight

Rashaad PennyRushing Yards

Right now, Rashaad Penny’s rushing yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the OVER up to 65.5 (-110) after it opened @ 57.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Rashaad Penny to earn 13.7 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 78th percentile among running backs.
Rashaad Penny has been a more important option in his offense’s rushing attack this season (61.3% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (47.2%).
Rashaad Penny has picked up 69.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest marks in the league among RBs (85th percentile).
Rashaad Penny’s rushing efficiency (5.65 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (90th percentile among running backs).

Cons

The Seahawks are a 5.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 4th-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 36.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have called the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 53.2 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The New Orleans Saints defense owns the 9th-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, conceding just 4.18 yards-per-carry.

Projection

THE BLITZ
64
Rushing Yards