Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Rashaad PennyRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Saints vs. Seahawks
Right now, Rashaad Penny’s rushing yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 65.5 (-110) after it opened @ 57.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Rashaad Penny to earn 13.7 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 78th percentile among running backs.
- Rashaad Penny has been a more important option in his offense’s rushing attack this season (61.3% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (47.2%).
- Rashaad Penny has picked up 69.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest marks in the league among RBs (85th percentile).
- Rashaad Penny’s rushing efficiency (5.65 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the NFL this year (90th percentile among running backs).
Cons
- The Seahawks are a 5.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 4th-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 36.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Seattle Seahawks have called the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 53.2 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- The New Orleans Saints defense owns the 9th-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, conceding just 4.18 yards-per-carry.
Projection
THE BLITZ
64
Rushing Yards
64
Rushing Yards
