Week 5 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Raheem Mostert from EV Insight

Raheem MostertRushing Yards

Right now, Raheem Mostert’s rushing yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 58.5 (-110) after it opened @ 48.5 (-115).

Pros

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Raheem Mostert to accumulate 14.6 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 79th percentile among running backs.
Raheem Mostert has earned 50.0% of his team’s rush attempts this year, placing him in the 82nd percentile among running backs.
The New York Jets safeties grade out as the 32nd-worst group of safeties in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.

Cons

The Dolphins rank as the 10th-least run-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 33.4% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense as the 2nd-worst paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 30.77 seconds per play.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in the league this year at opening holes for rushers.
Raheem Mostert’s rushing effectiveness (3.47 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL this year (19th percentile among RBs).
Raheem Mostert has been among the worst running backs in the league at grinding out extra ground yardage, averaging a lowly 2.54 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 19th percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
64
Rushing Yards