Week 5 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Nick Chubb from EV Insight

Nick ChubbRushing Yards

Right now, Nick Chubb’s rushing yards prop is set at 92.5 yards (-130/-105).

The public has bet the OVER up to 92.5 (-130) after it opened @ 89.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 48.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Nick Chubb to earn 17.2 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile among RBs.
Nick Chubb has been given 58.7% of his offense’s carries this year, placing him in the 89th percentile among RBs.
The Cleveland Browns O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the league this year at blocking for the run game.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns offense as the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 30.32 seconds per play.
The Los Angeles Chargers defensive tackles profile as the 3rd-best group of DTs in football this year when it comes to defending the run.
The Cleveland Browns have gone up against a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
79
Rushing Yards