Week 5 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Matt Breida

Matt BreidaRushing Yards

Right now, Matt Breida’s rushing yards prop is set at 35.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The projections expect the New York Giants offense to be the 9th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.57 seconds per snap.
The projections expect Matt Breida to notch 13.7 carries in this contest, on average, ranking in the 80th percentile when it comes to running backs.
While Matt Breida has earned 24.7% of his offense’s rush attempts in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be much less involved in New York’s rushing attack in this week’s contest at 14.0%.
The Miami Dolphins defense owns the 5th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, allowing 4.86 adjusted yards-per-carry.

Cons

The Giants are a big 13-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Giants to be the 6th-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 38.0% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The Giants O-line grades out as the 8th-worst in the league last year at blocking for the run game.
Matt Breida’s rushing efficiency has declined this season, totaling a measly 2.60 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 3.76 mark last season.
Matt Breida’s 1.81 yards-after-contact this year conveys a a noteable reduction in his rushing proficiency over last year’s 2.91 rate.

Projection

THE BLITZ
58
Rushing Yards