Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Khalil HerbertRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Commanders vs. Bears
Right now, Khalil Herbert’s rushing yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 47.5 (-110) after it opened @ 44.5 (-110).
Pros
- Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Chicago Bears to run on 48.6% of their chances: the 2nd-highest clip on the slate this week.
- The projections expect Khalil Herbert to earn 12.5 rush attempts in this contest, on average, ranking in the 77th percentile among RBs.
- After comprising 30.2% of his team’s rush attempts last year, Khalil Herbert has been called on more in the ground game this year, currently accounting for 43.3%.
- The Bears offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL last year at opening holes for runners.
- With a remarkable tally of 45.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (76th percentile), Khalil Herbert rates among the best RBs in football this year.
Cons
- The Bears are a 6-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
- The leading projections forecast the Bears to call the 3rd-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 60.7 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- The Bears have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.8 plays per game.
- Khalil Herbert’s 4.4 adjusted yards per carry this year indicates a a significant decline in his rushing prowess over last year’s 5.4 figure.
Projection
THE BLITZ
56
Rushing Yards
56
Rushing Yards
