Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Joe MixonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Cardinals vs. Bengals
Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 71.5 (-110) after it opened @ 68.5 (-110).
Pros
- This game’s spread implies a rushing game script for the Bengals, who are favored by 3 points.
- In this contest, Joe Mixon is expected by the projection model to secure a spot in the 89th percentile when it comes to running backs with 15.7 rush attempts.
- With an excellent rate of 59.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (82nd percentile), Joe Mixon rates as one of the top RBs in the league this year.
- The opposing side have run for the 9th-most adjusted yards in the NFL (132 per game) versus the Arizona Cardinals defense this year.
- As it relates to the defensive tackles’ role in defending against the run, Arizona’s collection of DTs has been easily exploitable this year, projecting as the 2nd-worst in football. in football.
Cons
- Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to run on 34.4% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
- Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are forecasted by our trusted projection set to call just 61.2 offensive plays in this contest: the 7th-fewest on the slate this week.
- The Bengals have run the 10th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 55.8 plays per game.
- The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.
- While Joe Mixon has garnered 84.8% of his offense’s rush attempts in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a much smaller part of Cincinnati’s rushing attack in this game at 74.8%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
66
Rushing Yards
66
Rushing Yards
