Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Joe MixonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Ravens vs. Bengals
Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 60.5 (-110) after it opened @ 59.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 3rd-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 71.8 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to notch 18.1 rush attempts this week, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile among running backs.
- Joe Mixon has earned 89.1% of his team’s carries this year, ranking in the 100th percentile among RBs.
- Joe Mixon has generated 57.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest figures in the NFL among RBs (80th percentile).
Cons
- The Bengals are a 3-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 6th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 36.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Bengals to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year in run blocking.
Projection
THE BLITZ
76
Rushing Yards
76
Rushing Yards
