Week 5 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Joe Mixon from EV Insight

Joe MixonRushing Yards

Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 60.5 (-110) after it opened @ 59.5 (-115).

Pros

The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 3rd-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 71.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to notch 18.1 rush attempts this week, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile among running backs.
Joe Mixon has earned 89.1% of his team’s carries this year, ranking in the 100th percentile among RBs.
Joe Mixon has generated 57.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest figures in the NFL among RBs (80th percentile).

Cons

The Bengals are a 3-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 6th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 36.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bengals to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year in run blocking.

Projection

THE BLITZ
76
Rushing Yards