Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jeff WilsonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Panthers vs. 49ers
Right now, Jeff Wilson’s rushing yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-125/-109).
The public has bet the OVER up to 70.5 (-125) after it opened @ 66.5 (-115).
Pros
- The 49ers are a 6-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 5th-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 46.8% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Jeffery Wilson to total 19.8 carries in this game, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile among RBs.
- THE BLITZ projects Jeffery Wilson to be much more involved in his team’s rushing attack this week (65.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (47.4% in games he has played).
- Jeffery Wilson has run for substantially more yards per game (64.0) this season than he did last season (50.0).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- The San Francisco 49ers offensive line ranks as the 9th-worst in football this year at opening holes for runners.
- The Carolina Panthers defensive tackles project as the 5th-best unit in the league this year in regard to run defense.
- The San Francisco 49ers have faced a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
85
Rushing Yards
85
Rushing Yards
