Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Jaylen WarrenRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Steelers vs. Ravens
Right now, Jaylen Warren’s rushing yards prop is set at 28.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 28.5 (-110) after it opened @ 30.5 (-110).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Pittsburgh Steelers to call the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL last year at opening holes for runners.
Cons
- The Steelers are a 4.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
- Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to run on 40.4% of their opportunities: the 9th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
- The Steelers have called the 5th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 53.5 plays per game.
- Jaylen Warren’s 2.9 adjusted yards per carry this season signifies a a material decline in his running prowess over last season’s 4.8 rate.
- Since the start of last season, the shaky Ravens run defense has allowed a colossal 3.99 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition’s running game: the 30th-worst rate in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
32
Rushing Yards
32
Rushing Yards
