Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
James CookRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Bills vs. Jaguars
Right now, James Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 54.5 (-110) after it opened @ 52.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Bills are a 5.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- The model projects James Cook to total 12.8 carries in this contest, on average, placing him in the 77th percentile among RBs.
- James Cook has been much more involved in his team’s rushing attack this season (54.1% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (19.1%).
- James Cook has rushed for significantly more adjusted yards per game (75.0) this season than he did last season (32.0).
- James Cook’s rushing efficiency (5.34 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (84th percentile among running backs).
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Bills to be the 9th-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 40.4% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- The model projects the Bills to call the 9th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- The Buffalo Bills offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in the league last year at opening holes for runners.
- Since the start of last season, the feeble Jaguars run defense has yielded a monstrous 4.30 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to opposing rushing attacks: the 27th-highest rate in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Rushing Yards
59
Rushing Yards
