Week 5 Player Props: Rushing Yards for James Conner from EV Insight

James ConnerRushing Yards

Right now, James Conner’s rushing yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-137/+100).

The public has bet the OVER up to 63.5 (-137) after it opened @ 59.5 (-119).

Pros

The Cardinals boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 5.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The predictive model expects the Arizona Cardinals to be the 3rd-most run-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 43.9% run rate.
In this contest, James Conner is anticipated by our trusted projection set to secure a spot in the 93rd percentile when it comes to running backs with 16.1 carries.
James Conner’s 77.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season conveys a an impressive progression in his rushing prowess over last season’s 61.0 rate.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 3rd-most adjusted yards in the league (153 per game) versus the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year.

Cons

The Cardinals will be rolling out backup QB Joshua Dobbs in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Cardinals are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Cardinals are forecasted by the projection model to run only 60.6 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.
The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
The Arizona Cardinals offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in the league last year at run-game blocking.

Projection

THE BLITZ
72
Rushing Yards