Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
James ConnerRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Cardinals vs. Bengals
Right now, James Conner’s rushing yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-137/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 63.5 (-137) after it opened @ 59.5 (-119).
Pros
- The Cardinals boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 5.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The predictive model expects the Arizona Cardinals to be the 3rd-most run-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 43.9% run rate.
- In this contest, James Conner is anticipated by our trusted projection set to secure a spot in the 93rd percentile when it comes to running backs with 16.1 carries.
- James Conner’s 77.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season conveys a an impressive progression in his rushing prowess over last season’s 61.0 rate.
- Opposing offenses have rushed for the 3rd-most adjusted yards in the league (153 per game) versus the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year.
Cons
- The Cardinals will be rolling out backup QB Joshua Dobbs in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Cardinals are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
- Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Cardinals are forecasted by the projection model to run only 60.6 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.
- The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
- The Arizona Cardinals offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in the league last year at run-game blocking.
Projection
THE BLITZ
72
Rushing Yards
72
Rushing Yards
