Week 5 Player Props: Rushing Yards for James Conner from EV Insight

James ConnerRushing Yards

Right now, James Conner’s rushing yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 44.5 (-110) after it opened @ 43.5 (-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 70.2 plays per game.
James Conner has received 47.8% of his offense’s carries this year, ranking him in the 80th percentile among RBs.
The Arizona Cardinals have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Arizona Cardinals have gone no-huddle on 35.9% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.

Cons

The Cardinals are a 5.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals as the 2nd-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 35.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
James Conner has rushed for substantially fewer yards per game (39.0) this year than he did last year (53.0).
James Conner’s ground effectiveness (3.47 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL this year (19th percentile among RBs).

Projection

THE BLITZ
47
Rushing Yards