NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Jamaal WilliamsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Patriots vs. Lions
Right now, Jamaal Williams’s rushing yards prop is set at 62.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 9th-most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 43.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 7th-quickest pace in football (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.63 seconds per play.
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Jamaal Williams to notch 19.9 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
- THE BLITZ projects Jamaal Williams to be much more involved in his team’s rushing attack this week (69.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (59.2% in games he has played).
Cons
- The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating a passing game script.
- The New England Patriots have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
82
Rushing Yards
82
Rushing Yards
