Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
J.K. DobbinsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Ravens vs. Bengals
Right now, J.K. Dobbins’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (-110) after it opened @ 50.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Ravens are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects J.K. Dobbins to earn 13.5 carries this week, on average, ranking in the 77th percentile among RBs.
- J.K. Dobbins has been given 42.6% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 75th percentile among running backs.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 9th-least run-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 36.5% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run on the slate this week at 122.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Baltimore Ravens have run the 3rd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 52.2 plays per game.
- The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- The Baltimore Ravens offensive line grades out as the 6th-worst in football this year at opening holes for runners.
Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Rushing Yards
59
Rushing Yards
