Week 5 Player Props: Rushing Yards for J.K. Dobbins from EV Insight

J.K. DobbinsRushing Yards

Right now, J.K. Dobbins’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (-110) after it opened @ 50.5 (-120).

Pros

The Ravens are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects J.K. Dobbins to earn 13.5 carries this week, on average, ranking in the 77th percentile among RBs.
J.K. Dobbins has been given 42.6% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 75th percentile among running backs.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 9th-least run-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 36.5% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run on the slate this week at 122.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens have run the 3rd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 52.2 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line grades out as the 6th-worst in football this year at opening holes for runners.

Projection

THE BLITZ
59
Rushing Yards