Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Derrick HenryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Colts vs. Titans
Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 77.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 77.5 (-110) after it opened @ 75.5 (-110).
Pros
- The model projects the Tennessee Titans as the 6th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 45.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- In this game, Derrick Henry is anticipated by the projection model to rank in the 99th percentile when it comes to running backs with 20.3 rush attempts.
- Out of all running backs, Derrick Henry ranks in the 97th percentile for carries this year, accounting for 73.0% of the workload in his offense’s run game.
Cons
- The Tennessee Titans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 3.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The leading projections forecast the Tennessee Titans offense to be the 3rd-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.90 seconds per snap.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Derrick Henry has run for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (68.0) this year than he did last year (91.0).
- This year, the shaky Colts run defense has surrendered a massive 3.81 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to opposing offenses: the 26th-largest rate in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
87
Rushing Yards
87
Rushing Yards
