Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dameon PierceRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Jaguars vs. Texans
Right now, Dameon Pierce’s rushing yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 66.5 (-115) after it opened @ 62.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.40 seconds per snap.
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Dameon Pierce to garner 17.8 carries in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 93rd percentile among RBs.
- Dameon Pierce has received 75.0% of his offense’s carries this year, placing him in the 96th percentile among running backs.
- Dameon Pierce has generated 80.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest marks in the league among running backs (93rd percentile).
Cons
- The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.2% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- The Texans are a heavy 7-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 35.5% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have rushed for the 7th-least yards in the NFL (just 93 per game) vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers rank as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
78
Rushing Yards
78
Rushing Yards
