Week 5 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Dameon Pierce from EV Insight

Dameon PierceRushing Yards

Right now, Dameon Pierce’s rushing yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 66.5 (-115) after it opened @ 62.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.40 seconds per snap.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Dameon Pierce to garner 17.8 carries in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 93rd percentile among RBs.
Dameon Pierce has received 75.0% of his offense’s carries this year, placing him in the 96th percentile among running backs.
Dameon Pierce has generated 80.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest marks in the league among running backs (93rd percentile).

Cons

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.2% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Texans are a heavy 7-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 35.5% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 7th-least yards in the NFL (just 93 per game) vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year.
The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers rank as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.

Projection

THE BLITZ
78
Rushing Yards