Week 5 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Dalvin Cook from EV Insight

Dalvin CookRushing Yards

Right now, Dalvin Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 78.5 yards (-137/+100).

The public has bet the OVER up to 78.5 (-137) after it opened @ 78.5 (-125).

Pros

The Vikings are a giant 7.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.83 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Dalvin Cook to garner 18.0 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 95th percentile among RBs.
Dalvin Cook has garnered 74.4% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, ranking in the 95th percentile among RBs.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in run blocking.

Cons

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 11th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 38.5% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Dalvin Cook has run for quite a few less yards per game (66.0) this season than he did last season (89.0).
The Minnesota Vikings have gone up against a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
79
Rushing Yards