Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Christian McCaffreyRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Panthers vs. 49ers
Right now, Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 52.5 (-115) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to notch 15.7 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking him in the 87th percentile among RBs.
- The Carolina Panthers offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in football this year at blocking for the run game.
- Christian McCaffrey has averaged 65.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest marks in the league among running backs (83rd percentile).
- The Carolina Panthers have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in football). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat-padding.
- The Carolina Panthers have gone for it on 4th down 23.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-most in football), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.
Cons
- The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The Panthers are a 6-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 8th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 37.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Carolina Panthers have run the 3rd-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 52.2 plays per game.
Projection
THE BLITZ
68
Rushing Yards
68
Rushing Yards
