Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Cam AkersRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Rams vs. Cowboys
Right now, Cam Akers’s rushing yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-104/-131).
The public has bet the OVER up to 44.5 (-104) after it opened @ 42.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Rams are a 5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Cam Akers has been given 49.3% of his team’s carries this year, putting him in the 82nd percentile among running backs.
- Opposing squads have rushed for the 9th-most yards in football (134 per game) vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year.
- The Dallas Cowboys defensive tackles rank as the 5th-worst unit in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 4th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 36.5% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Cam Akers’s running effectiveness (3.38 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (17th percentile among RBs).
- Cam Akers has been among the worst running backs in the league at generating extra rushing yardage, averaging a mere 2.55 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 21st percentile.
- The Los Angeles Rams have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 14.7% of the time since the start of last season (4th-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Rushing Yards
53
Rushing Yards
