Week 5 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Alvin Kamara from EV Insight

Alvin KamaraRushing Yards

Right now, Alvin Kamara’s rushing yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-105/-125).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 60.5 (-125) after it opened @ 61.5 (-115).

Pros

The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 3rd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Alvin Kamara to notch 15.6 carries in this contest, on average, ranking in the 86th percentile among RBs.
Alvin Kamara has been given 61.5% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
The New Orleans Saints O-line grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year at blocking for the run game.

Cons

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The New Orleans Saints have gone up against a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
The New Orleans Saints have elected to go for it on 4th down a mere 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
63
Rushing Yards