NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Aaron JonesRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Raiders vs. Packers
Right now, Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-110) after it opened @ 48.5 (-110).
Pros
- Aaron Jones has garnered 49.1% of his team’s carries since the start of last season, ranking him in the 86th percentile when it comes to running backs.
- The Green Bay Packers O-line grades out as the 6th-best in the NFL last year at opening holes for rushers.
- Aaron Jones has grinded out 61.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in the NFL among running backs (88th percentile).
- With an exceptional tally of 5.06 adjusted yards per carry (87th percentile), Aaron Jones rates as one of the top running backs in football since the start of last season.
- The opposing side have rushed for the 5th-most adjusted yards in the league (143 per game) vs. the Raiders defense this year.
Cons
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Green Bay Packers to run on 36.8% of their chances: the lowest frequency on the slate this week.
- The projections expect the Packers to run the fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.3 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The Packers have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 52.0 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- As it relates to the defensive ends’ role in stopping the run, Las Vegas’s collection of DEs has been one of the most skilled this year, ranking as the 6th-best in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
41
Rushing Yards
41
Rushing Yards
